Baseball Island

[Bizarro]

Between Cabrera and Fielder, the Tigers got pretty fat.

Now to sign Rich Garces!

[Poop Fresh-Herbed Pickles]

I guess Milwaukee never should have let Fielder become a free agent if the GM knew they couldn't afford him.  What kind of compensation do the Brewers get, Jeff?

[Bizarro]

They get Detroit's first round draft pick, which is 27th overall. They have the 28th pick themselves, so they'll be picking back to back.

[Bizarro]

They also get a supplemental pick... not from Detroit, just an added pick in a special round between the first and second rounds.

[Bizarro]

Let's suppose the Tigers think Fielder can maintain his current value of around 5 wins above replacement level for the first three years of this deal. Let's suppose after that, he declines at a fairly graceful -0.5 WAR/yr rate. Let's say that the current going rate for WAR of $5MM/WAR goes up by an average of 5% a year over the next nine years. Let's further suppose that not only does Fielder's unusually portly body not cause him to age prematurely (as most heavy players do), but that he maintains a perfect health record all the way into his age 36 season.

If all of those things go perfectly, the Tigers will only lose $10MM on this deal.

More likely, they will lose a shit ton of money.

Horribly risky deal on a risky player.

[Poop Fresh-Herbed Pickles]

ESPN Insider's Dan Szymborski used his ZiPS projection system to forecast Prince Fielder's production in Detroit over the life of his nine-year deal.

YR   BA   OBP   SLG   HR   RBI
'12   .275   .394   .504   33   97
'13   .273   .394   .504   32   96
'14   .272   .390   .496   31   94
'15   .266   .383   .479   29   88
'16   .262   .374   .462   26   82
'17   .259   .369   .440   22   74
'18   .255   .361   .424   20   69
'19   .253   .351   .415   18   63
'20   .248   .338   .388   13   50

[Poop Fresh-Herbed Pickles]

Tribe fans are getting suicidal over this power shift in the Central.  Free Agents like Fielder aren't supposed to come to the AL Central.

I guess some forecaster downgraded the Indians' chances to win the Central from 30% to 10% from this move.

[Bizarro]

The Indians just placed Carmona/Heredia on the restricted list. He won't be paid or have a roster spot until he sorts his shit out. Word is, they are trying to help him though and do want him back.

The worst thing for him, legally, is the false name. Post-9/11,  the Department of Homeland Security takes an extremely dim view of people coming here under a false identity. There are laws on the books meant to enable punishing of potential terrorists that might actually be applied here. It could get very bad for him.

The fact that he's a star athlete with no criminal record helps though.

As far as the Indians are concerned, the worst part is probably that he lied about his age. Take next year for example. A guy who's 29 and has two good seasons and one not bad one on his resume is probably worth giving a try at $9MM. A guy who's 32 and has the same resume is dicey. It really fucks up the forecast for his future worth.

[Bizarro]

Ugh. I don't like the Indians' chances at in 2012, Kurt. Even aside from how much better Detroit got this offseason, it feels like the Indians are still casting in their lot with retreads and kids and hoping they come out lucky. And yes, I realize they were in it for a long time last year. But a lot of things broke right for that to happen--Cabrera's career year, for instance.

They could still be kinda good. A full season of Kipnis will be good. Choo being healthy will be better. Santana may improve. But I'm reserving judgment on Sizemore until I see how healthy he is in spring training. They're unlucky to get much out of Jack Hannahan again. And Derek Lowe... Meh.

I would love to be wrong.

[Poop Fresh-Herbed Pickles]

I can't disagree much.  I think how Ubaldo pitches is crucial.   He needs to get it together again or we're screwed.

Everyone is excited to see more Kipnis, but like you say he's a rookie.  I think Santana will get better and he's an .800+ OPS guy, despite the BA.  He's pretty short for 1B and he's dicey at C, but he's a productive hitter.  He was rushed into being a cleanup hitter last year.  Maybe we could push him down to #6 with Choo and Hafner back, but the Indians lack that one big bat.

I think 3B is interesting with Chisenhall and Hannahan.  We have a lot of ground ball pitchers and Hannahan does make a difference.  And hopefully Chisenhall will be playing 2/3 of the AB and we might get 20 HRs out of the position.

1. Sizemore CF
2. Kipnis 2B
3. Cabrera SS
4. Choo RF
5. Hafner DH
6. Santana C
7. Kotchman 1B
8. Chissenhall/Hannahan 3B
9. Brantley LF

[Bizarro]

If they had added one good young starter and maybe done better at shopping for bargain vets, I'd be more optimistic.

But Derek Lowe does nothing for me.

And Casey Kotchman, who they signed today, is wildly inconsistent, and is yet another lefty bat. Derrek Lee would have been a much better fit, I think.

[Poop Fresh-Herbed Pickles]

*How Ubaldo pithces

[Poop Fresh-Herbed Pickles]

Yeah, the rotation is shitty.  Just the fact they still want Fausto says a lot. 

But the bully has been excellent so far...

[Poop Fresh-Herbed Pickles]

Y'know Fausto's name always struck me.  It made me associate him with Faustian bargains, but I never guessed how right I was.

[Bizarro]

More uninspiring Indians moves: they signed Jon Garland.

A caveat here: Jon Garland is a nice innings eater. He was hurt and missed most of last year, but has a track record of 190 IP seasons at or around league average level. That has value. And on a minor league contract: terrific. I'd be glad if the Cubs did that.

But the Indians aren't the Cubs. They aren't hoping to win 75 games. They're hoping to win the division. And Casey Kotchman, Derek Lowe, Jon Garland, and Kevin Slowey aren't going to get that done.

I was really hoping they'd make some upgrades. But meh.